The global oil market is approaching a very different phase from the previous decade. In Oil 2025, the IEA projects world oil demand to increase by around 2.5 million barrels per day between 2024 and 2030, reaching a plateau of about 105.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.
Growth slows progressively: around 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, followed by much smaller increases and a slight decline in 2030 under current policies and market trends.
The drivers of demand are changing
Over the previous decade, market growth was strongly shaped by rising Chinese demand and expanding U.S. supply. The IEA now sees a different phase. Chinese oil demand is on track to peak this decade, while growth in U.S. production slows.
Drivers include electric cars, LNG-fuelled trucks in China, expansion of high-speed rail and structural economic changes.
The role of EVs
Global electric-car sales exceeded 17 million in 2024 and the IEA expected them to pass 20 million in 2025. By 2030, EVs could displace around 5.4 million barrels per day of oil demand.
The effect is especially important in road fuels. Other segments, including aviation and petrochemicals, follow different trajectories and can continue supporting demand.
Production capacity keeps growing
While demand growth slows, global production capacity is projected to increase by 5.1 million barrels per day to 114.7 million by 2030. Capacity growth would therefore exceed expected demand growth.
This divergence can intensify competition, although actual prices and production will still depend on producer decisions, geopolitics and the global economy.
Oil does not disappear
A plateau does not mean oil becomes irrelevant. At more than 100 million barrels per day, it remains an enormous strategic market. What changes is the assumption of strong structural growth.
For companies, that alters investment logic: new projects must be assessed in a potentially more competitive market with flatter demand and growing alternatives.
A transition of gradual substitution
The IEA outlook shows that the energy transition is not an instantaneous replacement. Electrification, efficiency and industrial changes gradually reshape demand.
The decade’s turning point may therefore be not the disappearance of oil but the moment when growth can no longer be taken for granted. That changes expectations, capital allocation and strategy across the energy industry.
